Training on Advanced Public Revenue Forecasting and Debt Management

This advanced training equips participants with the analytical tools and policy frameworks needed to strengthen public revenue forecasting and debt management systems. The course integrates modern forecasting models, fiscal sustainability analysis, and digital monitoring tools to improve decision-making, transparency, and long-term financial stability. Participants will explore data-driven forecasting methods, risk-based debt management, and performance-based fiscal strategies aligned with international best practices.

Duration

5 Days

Who Should Attend

• Senior finance and treasury officers

• Economists and budget planners

• Public sector financial analysts and auditors

• Debt management officers and fiscal policy advisors

• Revenue authority and central bank officials

Organizational Impact:

• Strengthened fiscal planning and forecasting capacity

• Improved public debt sustainability and reporting transparency

• Enhanced efficiency in debt servicing and revenue performance

Individual Impact:

• Advanced forecasting and analytical competence

• Deeper understanding of debt management frameworks

• Increased ability to apply predictive and data-driven models

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

• Apply advanced techniques in public revenue forecasting

• Analyze fiscal risks and design sustainable debt management strategies

• Integrate data analytics and modeling tools for decision support

• Evaluate the impact of borrowing and revenue trends on fiscal health

• Develop performance-based monitoring and reporting systems

Module 1: Public Revenue Forecasting and Fiscal Policy Fundamentals

• Overview of fiscal forecasting systems and key drivers

• Understanding macroeconomic indicators and revenue elasticity

• Forecasting challenges in public finance

• Fiscal policy linkages to economic growth and stability

• Case Study: Designing a macro-fiscal forecasting model

Module 2: Quantitative Forecasting Models and Tools

• Time-series and regression models for revenue projection

• Scenario-based and stochastic forecasting approaches

• Data visualization for fiscal forecasting

• Integrating Excel, Power BI, and R for revenue forecasting

• Case Study: Building a revenue projection model for government revenue streams

Module 3: Debt Management Frameworks and Strategies

• Principles of effective debt management

• Understanding domestic vs. external debt portfolios

• Developing a medium-term debt management strategy (MTDS)

• Debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and indicators

• Case Study: Evaluating a government’s debt sustainability position

Module 4: Risk Management in Public Debt and Revenue Systems

• Identifying and mitigating debt-related fiscal risks

• Contingent liabilities and guarantees

• Incorporating risk assessment into borrowing decisions

• Fiscal buffers and resilience-building mechanisms

• Case Study: Managing contingent liabilities in public-private partnerships (PPPs)

Module 5: Fiscal Transparency, Reporting, and Accountability

• Frameworks for fiscal transparency and open budget reporting

• Strengthening monitoring and evaluation of public debt

• Use of technology and data platforms in debt management

• International standards: IMF, World Bank, and OECD guidelines

• Case Study: Digital transformation of a national debt reporting system